Pakistan Allegedly Advancing ICBM Program Capable of Hitting U.S. Mainland, Alarming Washington: Report
New Delhi: Pakistan is reportedly in the process of developing a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could strike targets within the continental United States, according to a new analysis published by Foreign Affairs, citing unnamed U.S. intelligence sources. The report indicates that such a development is causing increasing concern in Washington, where officials warn that if Islamabad acquires this level of long-range nuclear capability, the U.S. may be compelled to treat Pakistan as a direct nuclear threat.
While the primary focus of the Foreign Affairs piece is on the growing strategic alignment between Russia and China—an alliance that has already heightened anxieties in Washington—it also highlights Pakistan’s evolving missile ambitions. The report notes that, although Pakistan publicly maintains that its nuclear arsenal exists solely to counterbalance India’s conventional military superiority, American intelligence assessments suggest that the country’s military is working toward an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
Such a move, analysts speculate, could be aimed at deterring American involvement in any future India-Pakistan conflict or preemptive actions against Pakistan’s nuclear assets. “In obtaining an ICBM, Islamabad may be seeking to prevent U.S. interference—either a direct strike to neutralize its nuclear weapons or support for India during a future standoff,” the report states.
The consequences of such a development, according to U.S. officials cited in the report, would be significant. Washington has historically regarded any state with long-range nuclear strike capabilities as a strategic rival, not a partner. “No country possessing ICBMs capable of hitting the U.S. homeland is seen as an ally,” the report underlines, adding that if Pakistan joins this exclusive group, it could fundamentally alter how the U.S. engages with Islamabad diplomatically and militarily.
The article places Pakistan’s potential ICBM ambitions in the broader context of rising global nuclear instability. With Russia stepping back from decades of arms control agreements and China rapidly growing its strategic nuclear arsenal, the United States now faces what some experts are calling a “tri-polar” nuclear challenge. On top of these developments, the U.S. must also contend with unpredictable threats from North Korea, Iran, and now, potentially, Pakistan.
Pakistan’s nuclear program, born out of regional rivalries in the early 1970s, particularly following India’s 1974 nuclear test, has consistently drawn scrutiny from the international community. Despite pressure—especially from the U.S.—to curb its development, Pakistan has continued to invest in its nuclear infrastructure. In 1998, the country formally declared itself a nuclear power after conducting a series of nuclear tests in response to India’s.
Today, Pakistan’s nuclear strategy has broadened to include tactical nuclear weapons, signaling a readiness for flexible use in battlefield scenarios. The country has not signed either the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), underscoring its insistence on an independent national policy over externally imposed disarmament frameworks.
Estimates suggest that Pakistan currently maintains a nuclear stockpile of approximately 165 warheads. However, the development of an ICBM—if confirmed—would mark a significant escalation in its capabilities and could shift the balance of how global nuclear threats are assessed, particularly by Washington.
As the nuclear landscape grows increasingly complex and crowded, the United States is being forced to adapt to a world where traditional deterrence strategies may no longer be sufficient. The possibility of Pakistan joining the small group of nations capable of launching nuclear strikes across continents could redefine its relationship with the West and intensify the global arms race.
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